China Methanol (HS: 29051100) Annual Import Analysis 2025
“In 2025, China's methanol imports reached a record high of approximately 14.28 million tons (USD 3.94 billion), with the Middle East dominating the supply structure at a 69.2% share. The year exhibited a clear "low-start, high-ending" pattern, driven by MTO capacity expansion and emerging marine fuel demand. Geopolitical risks persist, while green methanol is poised to reshape future trade dynamics as China's imports are expected to exceed 20 million tons annually by 2028.”
Methanol (also known as wood alcohol or methyl alcohol) is the simplest saturated monohydric alcohol, with the chemical formula CH₃OH and CAS number 67-56-1. Its HS code is 2905.11.00. At room temperature, methanol is a colorless, transparent liquid with a pungent odor. It has a boiling point of 64.7°C, a density of approximately 0.792 g/mL, and is completely miscible with water and most organic solvents. Methanol is one of the world's most important basic chemical raw materials, with global annual trade exceeding 80 million tons. Major production routes include natural gas steam reforming (approx. 60%), coal-to-methanol (primarily in China, approx. 35%), and minor volumes from biomass/green hydrogen-based processes.
In 2025, both China's methanol import volume and value reached record highs, with the Middle East further strengthening its dominant position. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates together accounted for 61.6% of total imports. The year exhibited a clear pattern of "starting low and ending high," with import value in the second half of the year approximately 1.55 times that of the first half. Source countries such as Iran and Russia remain subject to geopolitical uncertainties. Green methanol is rapidly gaining strategic value in shipping decarbonization and represents the most important future growth direction.
According to data from Global Trade Information Services (GTI), in the full year of 2025 (January to December), China's total methanol import value reached approximately USD 3.94 billion, sourced from 29 countries/regions, with an import volume of about 14.28 million tons – an increase of roughly 8% year-on-year compared to 2024, setting a new historical record. The main drivers behind the import volume increase were: ① expansion of domestic MTO (methanol-to-olefins) capacity; ② cost pressures on domestic natural gas-based methanol due to rising gas prices; and ③ initial growth in methanol demand for marine fuel.
Monthly data reveals a typical "low-start, high-ending" pattern throughout the year – the first quarter, affected by the Lunar New Year holiday, was the lowest point of the year (approx. USD 239 million). The second quarter saw steady recovery with rising demand, while the third and fourth quarters strengthened continuously due to higher MTO operating rates and year-end stockpiling. Import value in the second half of the year was approximately 1.55 times that of the first half.
From a market distribution perspective, China's methanol import sources in 2025 were highly concentrated in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates together accounted for 61.6% of total imports. Including Iran (3.5%), Qatar (2.8%), and Bahrain (0.6%), the Middle East as a whole represented a dominant 69.2% share. This pattern reflects the continued cost advantage of the region's abundant and inexpensive natural gas resources.
The above data shows that the Middle East (69.2%) holds an absolute leading position, leveraging low-cost natural gas advantages. Geopolitical risks (Iran sanctions, regional conflicts) remain a major concern. Latin America (12.9%), led by Venezuela and Trinidad & Tobago, offers competitive pricing but suffers from unstable supply reliability. Asia-Pacific (10.6%), primarily Malaysia and New Zealand, provides flexible spot procurement and is ideal for emergency replenishment. Other regions (7.3%), including Russia and Qatar, account for smaller shares due to sanctions or limited production scale.
In 2025, China's domestic methanol production capacity reached approximately 108 million tons/year, with actual output of about 89 million tons. Imports totaled approximately 14.28 million tons, resulting in total apparent consumption of around 103 million tons – an increase of roughly 7% year-on-year. The import dependency ratio stood at about 13.8%, making China the world's largest methanol consumer and importer. Domestic capacity growth came mainly from coal-to-methanol, but constrained by capacity utilization (averaging around 82%), and coastal MTO plants' preference for lower-priced imported cargoes, import demand remains structurally rigid.
However, several risk factors deserve attention: Iran's approximately 3.5% import share faces uncertainty from U.S. sanctions – any tightening could trigger supply shortages. Russia's methanol export capacity is suppressed by Western sanctions, though price discounts attract some intermediary traders. Middle East tensions, including the Israel-Hamas conflict and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping routes, affect liner freight rates and arrival schedules. Venezuela's political instability continues to undermine supply reliability.
On the supply-demand surplus and downside price risk front, several large new methanol plants in the Middle East are scheduled to come online in 2026–2027, bringing significant global supply increases. Domestic coal-to-methanol capacity utilization in China has room to recover, and any increase would curb imports. The profitability of downstream MTO units is constrained by weakening ethylene/propylene prices, creating potential for reduced operating rates.
Looking ahead, driven by continued MTO capacity expansion in China and rapidly growing methanol demand for marine fuel, China's total methanol imports are expected to exceed 20 million tons per year by 2028. At the same time, green methanol will gradually enter China's import procurement system, reshaping the global methanol trade landscape. Enterprises should seize this strategic window by making early-stage investments in supply diversification, green transformation, and infrastructure development to prepare for the profound competitive shifts ahead.
