Analysis of the Latest Import and Export Data for Chinese Dolls（HS：95030029） in Q1 2025
“China, as the world's largest toy producer and exporter, accounts for over 70% of the toys on the global market. Amid the dual pressures of a global trade downturn and weak consumer demand, China’s doll industry, represented by Labubu, is demonstrating remarkable resilience and writing a new chapter of counter-trend growth. The global doll market is projected to exceed $120 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%.”
When a Thai princess appeared at fashion week carrying a Hermès Birkin bag adorned with a Labubu, when global pop icon Rihanna flaunted her Labubu accessory, and when David Beckham posted on social media about the Labubu gifted to him by his daughter Harper…
The world is going crazy for a Chinese doll!
China, as the world's largest toy producer and exporter, accounts for over 70% of the toys on the global market. Amid the dual pressures of a global trade downturn and weak consumer demand, China’s doll industry, represented by Labubu, is demonstrating remarkable resilience and writing a new chapter of counter-trend growth. The global doll market is projected to exceed $120 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%.
China's Doll Import and Export Data for January–March 2025
According to customs data, from January to March 2025, China’s doll exports (HS: 95030029) reached approximately $535 million, an increase of $13.56 million year-on-year (YoY), up 2.60%. Meanwhile, doll imports totaled $28.39 million, a rise of $3.89 million YoY, up 15.85%.
Export Average Price:
In Q1 2025, the average export price of Chinese dolls was $1.79 per unit, a 20.49% decline YoY.
The drop in average export prices was primarily due to:
•A significant decrease in the prices of key raw materials like plastics, creating room for price reductions.
•Increased competition from a growing number of small and medium-sized manufacturers, leading to price wars as a survival strategy.
•Weak economic recovery in Europe and the U.S., prompting companies to lower prices to maintain market share amid sluggish demand.
Export Volume:
From January to March 2025, China's doll export volume reached 299 million units, a 29.04% increase YoY.
The surge in exports was driven by:
•Historic breakthroughs in overseas markets for Chinese pop culture IP dolls like Pop Mart's Labubu series, sparking a buying frenzy in Europe and the U.S.
•Cross-border e-commerce and policy incentives boosting penetration in overseas lower-tier markets.
•Growing consumer demand for emotional comfort and companionship under high-pressure lifestyles, expanding the doll consumer base.
Regional Trade Analysis:
Asia, North America, and Europe were the primary export destinations, accounting for 88.78% of total exports.
Key regional export performance (YoY):
•North America: $143 million (+12.77%)
•Europe: $94.89 million (+1.94%)
•Latin America: $45.39 million (+12.13%)
•Asia: $238 million (-2.25%)
•Oceania: $7.76 million (-24.61%)
•Africa: $6.89 million (-16.41%)
Top Export Countries/Regions (Q1 2025):
•United States: $135 million
•Japan: $101 million
•Singapore: $23.35 million (+41.47% YoY)
Singapore’s rapid growth was attributed to:
•The globalization of pop culture IP, with 74% of Singapore’s population being ethnically Chinese, fostering strong emotional resonance with Chinese IP.
•The explosive growth of e-commerce channels and the continued benefits of the RCEP agreement.
•Supply chain optimization, differentiated market demand, and policy support.
Top Exporting Provinces (Q1 2025):
•The top five provinces accounted for 80.22% of total exports: Guangdong,Shandong,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Xinjiang.
•Following closely were Guangxi ($19.64 million), Hubei ($17.81 million), Hunan ($16.01 million), Shanghai ($13.77 million), and Sichuan ($8.03 million).
Global Market Distribution and Characteristics of Dolls
Industry Chain Overview:
★Upstream: Raw materials (plastics, plush textiles, electronic components) and IP creation (e.g., Disney, Pop Mart). Key suppliers include Kingfa Technology and Wanhua Chemical.
★Midstream: Manufacturing clusters in high-end production hubs like Guangdong and Yangzhou, with some low-to-mid-range production shifting to Vietnam and Indonesia.
★Downstream: Diversified sales channels, including cross-border e-commerce platforms (Temu, AliExpress, TikTok Shop) and regional brick-and-mortar retail.
Global Consumer Markets:
★Core Markets (North America & Europe): High-end collectibles, smart interactive dolls, and IP derivatives dominate, with adult consumers driving demand. Europe emphasizes eco-friendliness, premium customization, and emotional consumption.
★Growth Engine (Asia-Pacific): Cultural resonance and channel innovation fuel growth, driven by anime IP, "Guochao" (national trend) IP, and emotional consumption.
★Emerging Markets (Latin America & Middle East): The rise of pop culture IP like Labubu has unlocked potential, creating viral trends in these regions.
Future Outlook
As demand grows among adult collectors, emotional well-being products, and the integration of pop culture industries, the doll market will continue expanding. As the world's largest and most industrially complete doll producer, China is poised to birth its first $100 billion doll brand by 2030, becoming a global leader in cultural consumption.
Challenges and Opportunities:
China's doll industry stands at a crossroads of technological innovation and risk management. To thrive, companies must:
★Monitor international trade trends.
★Enhance industrial collaboration, automation, and regional market specialization.
★For SMEs entering the pop culture doll market, success hinges on targeting niche audiences and developing distinctive, story-driven IPs to stand out in a competitive landscape.
Under the rise of Chinese brands like Labubu, the future of the global doll market is being reshaped—one doll at a time.
