Deep Insights into China's Steel Export Market: Exploring Sustainable Growth Pathways Amid Multiple Challenges
“Despite facing multiple challenges, including intensified trade frictions, fierce price competition, and shifts in global supply and demand patterns, China’s steel exports continue to demonstrate strong resilience. Through policy-driven optimization of the product structure, technological innovation among enterprises, and diversification of markets, the industry is actively transitioning toward higher quality and greener development, aiming to achieve a sustainable growth path from scale expansion to quality enhancement.”
Within the global steel trade landscape, China's steel exports consistently demonstrate strong market influence and industrial resilience. In 2024, China's steel product export volume reached approximately 111 million tons, accounting for 23.4% of the global steel trade volume, with an export value of $83.631 billion. This data not only reflects China's central position in the global steel supply chain but also indicates the comprehensive competitiveness of its industrial system. Observing from a longer-term perspective, China's steel product export volume has maintained a growth trend for many consecutive years: exports totaled 90.26 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%; and 67.32 million tons in 2022. Behind this sustained growth lies the systematic enhancement of China's steel industry in terms of production capacity, technological accumulation, and market expansion.
Market Structure Analysis: The Asian Foundation and Emerging Growth Poles
Deep Layout in the Asian Market
The Asian region remains the most crucial market for China's steel exports. In 2024, Southeast Asian countries held a prominent position in China's steel export structure:
•The Vietnamese Market: The annual export volume reached 12.7323 million tons, accounting for 11.5% of China's total steel exports, maintaining its position as the top destination for China's steel exports for multiple consecutive years. The rapid development of Vietnam's infrastructure, particularly large-scale investments in transportation, energy, and urban development, provides stable demand for Chinese steel.
•The Philippine Market: Export volume reached 5.049 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 68.9%. Among these, exports of section steel amounted to 996,600 tons, representing a substantial share of the country's section steel imports; exports of color-coated coil totaled 465,000 tons. The Philippines suffers from a severe shortage of domestic steel production capacity, with 60%-65% of its billet production reliant on imports, of which China supplies up to 75%. Driven by the "Build, Build, Build" infrastructure program, this dependency is unlikely to change significantly in the short term.
•The Indian Market: During the period from April to November 2024, China exported 1.96 million tons of steel to India, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. Major export products included stainless steel, hot-rolled coil, electrical steel sheets, and other high-value-added products. India's manufacturing development and infrastructure plans provide ongoing market opportunities for Chinese steel.
•The Japanese and South Korean Markets: In 2024, China exported 8.1875 million tons of steel to South Korea, accounting for approximately one-third of South Korea's total steel imports. Although South Korea initiated anti-dumping investigations against certain Chinese steel products starting in 2025, the complementary nature of the two countries' steel industries still provides a foundation for trade cooperation. The Japanese market maintains stable demand in the special steel sector, with Chinese special steel products gradually gaining recognition from Japanese manufacturers, driven by both quality improvements and cost optimization.
Rapid Growth in the Middle East Region
The Middle East market is becoming a new growth pole for China's steel exports. In 2024, China's steel exports to the Middle East accounted for 14% of its total export volume, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) performing particularly well:
•The UAE Market: Annual exports reached 5.36 million tons, a substantial increase of 42% compared to 2023, ranking second in growth rate among major global markets. Mega-projects such as the expansion of Dubai's Al Maktoum International Airport and the construction of the Disney theme park on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi provide strong support for steel demand.
•Market Potential Assessment: Per capita crude steel consumption in the Middle East still lags behind the global average. With the advancement of national-level plans like Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" and the UAE's "Projects of the 50," infrastructure construction in the region will continue to drive steel demand. It is projected that over the next 3-5 years, the Middle East's share in China's steel export market is expected to further increase to 18%-20%.
Multiple Challenges and Structural Contradictions
Increasingly Complex International Trade Environment
The rise of global trade protectionism poses substantial pressure on China's steel exports:
•Barriers in the US Market: High tariffs based on "Section 232" and "Section 301" have significantly eroded the price advantage of Chinese steel in the US market, directly leading to a sharp decline in exports to the United States.
•Trade Remedy Measures by Multiple Countries: Since 2024, the number of anti-dumping and countervailing investigation cases involving Chinese steel products has increased noticeably, covering various product categories including hot-rolled coil, medium and heavy plate, and seamless steel pipe. Several countries and regions, including Vietnam, India, and the European Union, have implemented varying degrees of trade restrictions.
•Assessment of Long-term Impact: These trade barriers not only increase compliance costs and market uncertainty for enterprises but may also trigger emulation by other countries, creating a chain reaction that further compresses the global market space for Chinese steel.
Structural Issues of "Volume Increase and Price Decline"
Data for the first half of 2025 shows that China exported 58.15 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, but the average export price decreased by 10.3% year-on-year. Underlying this phenomenon are deep-seated structural reasons:
•Product Structure Factors: Low-value-added products still account for a relatively high proportion of exports. In the first half of 2025, China's billet export volume reached 5.89 million tons, three times that of the same period last year, but the average export price fell by 15.3%. The large-scale export of primary products not only reduces overall profit margins but may also trigger more trade frictions.
•Market Competition Dynamics: Against the backdrop of overall global steel overcapacity, price competition remains the primary means for many enterprises to expand into international markets. While this model can maintain market share in the short term, it is detrimental to industrial upgrading and sustainable development in the long run.
Pressure from Changes in Global Supply and Demand Patterns
•Weakening Demand Side: The pace of recovery in global manufacturing has slowed. Data from China's Federation of Logistics & Purchasing shows that the global manufacturing PMI was 49.6% in November 2025, remaining in contraction territory for several consecutive months. The weakening of manufacturing activity directly impacts the growth momentum of global steel demand.
•Recovery on the Supply Side: In October 2025, crude steel production in 70 major steel-producing countries worldwide was 143.3 million tons. Although this represented a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, production in regions outside China reached 71.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The recovery of overseas production capacity has intensified competition in the international market.
•Competition from Emerging Markets: Traditional importing countries like India and Vietnam are accelerating the development of their domestic steel industries, which may gradually replace some import demand in the long term.
Policy Guidance and Corporate Response Strategies
Optimization and Upgrading of Export Management Policies
On December 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced that export license management would be implemented for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026. This policy adjustment holds significant importance in multiple aspects:
•Comprehensive Management Scope: Covers 300 customs commodity codes, including raw material products like non-alloy pig iron, recycled steel raw materials, and steel powders; intermediate products like rectangular section billets and continuous casting slabs; and finished steel products like hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and coated products.
•Clear Policy Objectives: Through export license management, guide enterprises to optimize their product mix and reduce exports of low-value-added products; promote market diversification to reduce dependence on traditional markets; drive green transformation to adapt to global low-carbon development trends.
•Expected Implementation Effects: May impact the export rhythm of some enterprises in the short term, but will promote the transformation of the entire industry towards high-quality and high-efficiency development in the medium to long term.
Multi-dimensional Paths to Enhance Corporate Competitiveness
1. Technological Innovation and Product Upgrading
•Breakthroughs in High-end Products: Baowu Steel Group has achieved technological breakthroughs in the automotive sheet sector, with its ultra-high strength steel and hot-formed steel products now supplied to several globally renowned automakers. The high magnetic induction grain-oriented electrical steel developed by Ansteel Group has gained international recognition in fields like new energy vehicles and ultra-high voltage transformers.
•Increased R&D Investment: The R&D investment of leading steel enterprises as a proportion of operating revenue has risen to 2.5%-3.5%, with key research directions including high-strength lightweight steel, corrosion-resistant special steel, and smart manufacturing technologies.
2. Deepening Market Diversification Strategy
•Opportunities under the "Belt and Road" Initiative: Chinese enterprises are establishing localized production and processing centers in regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. For example, steel processing projects invested in Vietnam and Indonesia not only cater to local market demand but also effectively circumvent some trade barriers.
•Expansion into Emerging Markets: Increase efforts to develop markets in regions like Africa and Latin America. In 2024, China's steel exports to Africa grew by 25% year-on-year. Although starting from a small base, the growth potential is considerable.
3. Green Transformation and Sustainable Development
•Application of Low-carbon Technologies: The proportion of electric arc furnace steelmaking is steadily increasing, and cutting-edge technologies like hydrogen-based metallurgy are beginning pilot demonstrations. Some enterprises have already achieved a 20%-30% reduction in carbon emissions per ton of steel.
•Green Product Certification: "Green steel" products certified with Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) demonstrate significantly enhanced premium pricing power in the international market. Some enterprises, through whole-process carbon verification, have achieved a 50% carbon reduction per ton of steel, markedly improving product competitiveness.
Future Outlook and Development Recommendations
In the short term, China's steel exports will continue to face multiple challenges, including trade frictions, price pressures, and changes in supply and demand. However, guided by policies and through their own efforts, the industry is undergoing a profound transformation:
Continuous Deepening of Structural Adjustment
The proportion of high-end products in exports is expected to increase from the current 35% to over 50% by 2028.
The degree of market diversification will further improve, potentially reducing dependence on single markets.
Green Development Becomes a Core Competitiveness
With the formal implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, the international competitiveness of low-carbon steel products will become more pronounced.
The green transformation of Chinese steel enterprises is not only a response to international market demands but also an inherent requirement for the sustainable development of the industry.
Industrial Chain Collaboration and International Cooperation
Strengthen exchanges and cooperation with international peers in areas such as technical standards and carbon emission accounting.
Transition from product export to comprehensive export of technology, standards, and management through overseas investment and production capacity cooperation.
In summary, China's steel exports are at a critical stage of transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement." Despite facing numerous challenges, through coordinated efforts in policy guidance, technological innovation, and market development, China's steel industry is poised to achieve new breakthroughs within the global value chain, steadily advancing from a major steel exporter to a strong one. This process requires not only the efforts of enterprises but also the collaborative force of industry organizations, research institutions, and government departments to jointly promote the high-quality development of China's steel industry.
