China's Bird's Nest (HS: 041009010) Import Analysis Report, January–July 2026 | Big Trade Data

Key Findings: Volume Up, Price Down, Duopoly Structure Entrenched

     In January–July 2026, China's bird's nest imports (HS code 04109010) showed a classic pattern of "volume expansion with price decline." Import value reached approximately $332 million, up 18.90% year-on-year; import volume totaled 396.36 tonnes, up 28.40% year-on-year; and the average unit price fell from $905.17/kg to $838.19/kg, a decline of 7.40%. Source concentration is extremely high: Indonesia and Malaysia together account for 99.12% of import value, while Vietnam and Thailand combined account for less than 1%. In July alone, import value more than doubled year-on-year (+109.34%), becoming the key variable in the full-year trend.

I. Import Data Overview

     Data Note: In the monthly customs data, June 2026 import volume was recorded as 48,141 kg (complete volume data), but the corresponding value was recorded at only $4,160,803, implying a unit price of $86.43/kg, which deviates significantly from the normal range of $800–930/kg, indicating a statistical gap. This report back-calculates the June value as $41,160,803 (equivalent to $855.01/kg) based on "total source-market value of $332,224,397 − the sum of the other six months of $291,063,594," which aligns with the full-year price level. The monthly value, unit price, and year-on-year changes below are based on the calibrated data; import volume requires no adjustment.

1. Monthly Import Value Comparison (USD)

2. Monthly Import Volume Comparison (kg)

3. Monthly Average Import Price Comparison (USD/kg)

II. Import Source Market Analysis, January–July 2026

 High-unit-price sources: Thailand ($3,525.74/kg), Indonesia ($931.83/kg), Vietnam ($868.62/kg)

 Main volume sources: Indonesia (219,958 kg), Malaysia (173,137 kg), Vietnam (3,236 kg)

 High transaction frequency sources: Malaysia (121 transactions), Indonesia (75), Vietnam (35), Thailand (3)

Import Source Country Details

III. In-Depth Data Interpretation

Volume–Price Divergence: A Classic Case of Trading Price for Volume

     Import volume grew 28.40%, while the average price fell 7.40%, and value rose only 18.90%. Volume growth clearly outpaced value growth, with the gap filled by falling prices. In all seven months of the year, the average price declined year-on-year, with drops ranging from -1.38% to -12.81%, and no single month showed a price rebound. This indicates that the current growth is not driven by demand-side premiums, but by supply-side volume expansion combined with lower procurement costs. For domestic processors and brand companies, improved raw material costs are a direct positive; for traders, it means the logic of hoarding for appreciation does not hold at this stage.

July Single-Month Explosion Sets a New High for the Year

     July imports reached $53.9341 million in value and 65,284 kg in volume, up 109.34% and 126.29% year-on-year respectively—both the highest single-month figures of the year. In the same period of 2025, June–July combined value was only $53.5273 million; in 2026, it reached $95.0949 million, an increase of 77.7%. This concentrated surge typically corresponds to two factors: first, the front-loading of stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, and year-end gift markets in the second half; second, increased raw bird's nest production in Malaysia and Indonesia after entering the dry season, with export quotes loosening accordingly. The July surge also means that inventory digestion pressure in Q3 will be transmitted to Q4.

March and May Were the Only Two Months with Negative Value Growth

     March value fell -24.80% year-on-year and volume -19.91%, the largest decline of the year; May value fell -3.24% while volume rose +1.16%, with volume up and price down. The March decline was directly related to the post-Spring Festival consumption off-season and channel destocking. After excluding seasonal factors, January–May value grew only 4.97% year-on-year, and almost all of the full-year 18.90% increase was contributed by June–July.

Source Landscape: Two Countries Dominate, Price Gap Reaches 30%

Indonesia: High-Unit-Price Mainstay, Largest Single-Transaction Scale

     Indonesia accounted for 61.69% of value at $204.96 million, but its volume share was only 55.49%, with a unit price of $931.83/kg, 29.7% higher than Malaysia. Its 75 transactions averaged 2,933 kg and $2.73 million per transaction, a typical "large orders, low frequency" model—customers are mainly qualified large-scale processors and major traders. Indonesia's reputation for raw bird's nest materials and the quality of its cup-shaped nests supports its premium.

Malaysia: Low-Price Volume Driver, Highest Transaction Frequency

     Malaysia accounted for 37.43% of value at $124.36 million, with a volume share of 43.68%, and a unit price of $718.25/kg, 29.7% lower than Indonesia. Its 121 transactions averaged 1,431 kg and $1.03 million per transaction, a "small orders, high frequency" model with a more dispersed customer base, including a higher proportion of small and medium-sized traders and ready-to-eat bird's nest processors. Malaysia's price advantage makes it the primary raw material source for mass-produced product lines such as ready-to-eat and freshly stewed bird's nest.

Vietnam and Thailand: Marginal Supplements, Unlikely to Achieve Scale in the Short Term

     Vietnam recorded $2.81 million in value and 3,236 kg in volume, at a unit price of $868.62/kg, with 35 transactions—the channel is open but the volume is extremely small. Thailand recorded only $95,195 in value and 27 kg in volume, at a unit price as high as $3,525.74/kg, representing a niche supplement of high-end cup-shaped nests. The two countries together account for less than 1% of value, and given capacity and access restrictions, they are unlikely to change the duopoly structure in the short term.

IV. 2026 Import Trend Outlook

Positive Factors

    •Declining raw material costs: The average price fell 7.40% year-on-year, directly improving gross margin space for downstream ready-to-eat bird's nest, freshly stewed bird's nest, and gift-box products.

    •Stable supply channels: The registered factory systems in Indonesia and Malaysia are mature, access qualifications continue to expand, and supply security is high.

    •Second-half consumption peak season: Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, Double 11, and Spring Festival stockpiling are concentrated from August to January of the following year, providing demand-side support.

    •Expanding domestic consumption base: Bird's nest is extending from a gift attribute to daily tonic consumption, and the trend toward ready-to-eat and small-package formats is driving normalized raw material demand.

Negative Factors

    •Highly concentrated sources: CR2 reaches 99.12%; any change in export policy, epidemic quarantine, or factory qualification in either country could cause supply disruption risks.

   •Inventory pressure after the July surge: If the 65 tonnes imported in a single month cannot be fully digested during the peak season, price-cutting destocking may occur in Q4.

    •Sustained one-way price decline: The average price has been negative year-on-year for seven consecutive months; channel hoarding faces losses from price declines, and procurement pace is becoming more conservative.

    •Tightening compliance and traceability: Bird's nest imports must meet requirements for registered factories, quarantine permits, and traceability codes, raising compliance costs for small and medium-sized traders.

Trend Forecast

    •Full-year import volume is expected to exceed 650 tonnes. Based on 396.36 tonnes in January–July and the second-half peak season rhythm, full-year 2026 import volume is projected to grow 25%–30% year-on-year.

    •Average price to remain in the $800–860/kg range. If the share of lower-priced Malaysian supply continues to rise, the average price still has room to decline, but the probability of falling below $800 is low.

    •The two-country monopoly is unlikely to be broken in the short term. Constrained by capacity and access, Vietnam and Thailand are unlikely to exceed a combined 2% share in 2026.

    •Q4 is a key observation window. The digestion speed of the concentrated July arrivals during the Mid-Autumn and National Day peak season will determine whether year-end fire-sale price cuts occur.

V. Procurement and Business Recommendations

Source Layout Strategy

    •Divert sources from the two countries by use: Indonesian goods ($931.83/kg) are suitable for high-end gift boxes and cup-shaped nest products, while Malaysian goods ($718.25/kg) are suitable for mass-production lines such as ready-to-eat and freshly stewed products. Allocate proportions by product line to control costs.

    •Avoid single-source dependence: Under a CR2 structure of 99.12%, it is recommended to simultaneously lock in 2–3 registered factories each in Indonesia and Malaysia to diversify supply disruption risks.

    •Watch the Vietnam channel: Vietnam's 35 high-frequency transactions indicate the channel is open. Small-batch trial orders can be used to verify quality and customs clearance efficiency, cultivating it as a backup source.

Procurement Rhythm Recommendations

    •Do not chase high prices or hoard: With the average price negative year-on-year for seven consecutive months and no sign of stabilization, it is advisable to procure on a rolling basis according to order demand, keeping inventory cycles at 2–3 months.

    •Seize the June–July price lows: Historical data show that June–July are relatively low points during the year ($855.01, $826.15); the proportion of procurement in this window can be moderately increased.

    •Front-load stockpiling for the peak season: Mid-Autumn and National Day peak season shipments are concentrated in August–September, so stockpiling should be completed in June–July to avoid pushing up costs through concentrated purchasing.

Compliance and Risk Control

    •Verify registered factory qualifications: Before import, check transaction by transaction whether the overseas manufacturer is on the General Administration of Customs' registered list to avoid inability to clear customs upon arrival.

    •Keep traceability and testing records: Bird's nest is a high-risk animal-derived food; nitrite and avian influenza test reports and traceability labels should be fully retained to respond to spot checks.

    •Exchange rates and settlement: Imports are settled in US dollars, and single transactions are large (Indonesia averages $2.73 million per transaction). Forward foreign exchange purchases are recommended to lock in costs.

Business and Product Recommendations

    •Convert cost dividends into terminal competitiveness: After a 7.40% decline in raw material costs, companies may choose to offer discounts to capture market share rather than retaining all of it as gross margin.

    •Accelerate the layout of ready-to-eat products: Lower-priced raw materials are more suitable for scaled categories such as ready-to-eat and freshly stewed bird's nest, which are the main outlets for digesting incremental volume.

    •Establish a price monitoring mechanism: Track the CIF prices and exchange rates of the two countries monthly, set procurement trigger thresholds, and reduce timing deviations caused by human judgment.

Conclusion

     In the first seven months of 2026, China's bird's nest imports delivered a report card of "substantial volume expansion, steadily declining prices, and highly concentrated sources." The import volume of 396.36 tonnes indicates that the domestic bird's nest consumption market is still expanding in real terms, while the average price of $838.19/kg shows that this round of expansion is driven by supply-side volume rather than scarcity premiums. For downstream companies, this is a window of improved raw material costs; for the trading segment, the one-way price decline environment does not support the game of hoarding for price spreads.

     The real risk is not price, but structure. A source concentration of 99.12% means the entire industry's raw material lifeline is tied to the policies and production capacity of Indonesia and Malaysia. The 126.29% volume surge in July alone is, in the short term, a positive signal of peak-season stockpiling, but whether it can be smoothly digested during the Mid-Autumn and National Day period will directly affect Q4 price trends and full-year profitability. Companies are advised to enjoy the cost dividend while investing energy in multi-factory backups, improved compliance systems, and terminal product structure—this is the certainty for navigating price cycles.