RMB Hits 3.5-Year High, US Slaps 86.01% Anti-Dumping Duty on Chinese Aluminum Extrusions – Weekly Global Trade Recap

I. Exchange Rates and Financial Markets

     RMB strengthens to 3.5-year high. On August 17, the PBOC set the yuan central parity rate at 6.7873 against the US dollar, up 5 basis points from the previous day. The onshore spot rate closed at 6.7382, and breached the 6.73 level in overnight trading, while the offshore rate traded at 6.7432. Both onshore and offshore RMB hit their highest levels since February 2023. The US dollar index stood at 99.58 on the day.

     Goldman Sachs sees September rate hike as unlikely. US retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, while the underlying employment trend showed only 5,000 net new jobs. The PCE price index is expected to rise around 0.2% month-on-month, and the probability of a gradual inflation decline is now higher than that of an acceleration. Goldman Sachs assesses that the odds of a September rate hike have fallen to about 33%. Markets are closely watching the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for release on August 20.

     US long-term Treasury yields surge. On August 13, the US Treasury auctioned $25 billion in 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.216%, the highest since 2001. The 10-year Treasury yield also rose to 4.72%. The sharp rise in long-term financing costs reflects persistent market concerns over US fiscal conditions and long-term inflation.

     Gold hits new high. COMEX gold futures closed at $4,473.10/oz on August 17, up 0.81%. Supported by a weaker dollar, cooling Fed rate-hike expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold briefly touched $4,486/oz during the session.

    💡 FX hedging tip: With the RMB trading at a cyclical high, exporters are advised to lock in exchange rates in tranches within the 6.73-6.76 range, while keeping an eye on the FOMC minutes on August 20 for any hawkish or dovish signals that could impact the currency trajectory.

II. Trade Policy and Compliance

【US Finalizes 86.01% Anti-Dumping Duty on Chinese Aluminum Extrusions】

     The US Department of Commerce published in the Federal Register on August 17 the final results of the administrative review of the antidumping duty order on aluminum extrusions from the People's Republic of China. The review covers 18 Chinese companies that failed to provide the necessary documentation to establish eligibility for a separate rate, and have therefore been assigned the China-wide entity rate of 86.01% ad valorem, effective August 17.

     The products subject to the order cover aluminum extrusions in the 1xxx, 3xxx, and 6xxx alloy series, including tubes, bars, profiles, and products subjected to secondary processing such as cutting, drilling, anodising, and painting. US Customs and Border Protection has been instructed to apply the 86.01% duty rate to entries of subject merchandise exported by the listed companies during the review period.

     Impact and recommendations: The 86.01% duty rate represents a massive cost increase for exporters of aluminum extrusions and downstream products such as windows, doors, curtain walls, and furniture. Affected companies should immediately verify whether their products fall within the scope of the order and consult legal counsel to assess eligibility for a separate rate or product exclusion.

【US-Canada Trade Talks Approach August 19 Deadline】

     On July 20, US President Donald Trump issued a proclamation under Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, ordering 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, including autos, alcohol, dairy, cement, and hundreds of other items. The new tariffs are scheduled to take effect on August 19.

     According to Reuters, significant differences remain between the two sides in the negotiations. Core disagreements centre on automotive tariffs and the scope of component value offsets. Canadian trade minister LeBlanc indicated that the two sides remain far apart on a draft trade agreement. The tariffs would cover approximately 5.2% of Canada's exports to the US.

     Impact and recommendations: Companies that transship goods to the US via Canada should urgently evaluate alternative routes and supplychain options, monitor developments ahead of the August 19 deadline, and prepare contingency plans.

【US Issues Tariff Warning to UK】

     US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated on August 17 that President Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on UK goods over the UK's digital services tax is "not a bluff". Greer noted that Trump has criticised the UK's digital services tax but will not set an artificial deadline for the UK to abandon the policy. Companies with exposure to the UK market should closely monitor the digital services tax dispute and assess potential risks in advance.

【Geopolitics and Energy】

     Traffic through the Persian Gulf remains sluggish. On August 15, only five cargo vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, and on August 16, no cargo vessels passed through (compared with 31 vessels the previous weekend). Oil-producing countries are exploring unconventional methods to move crude out of the Persian Gulf.

     International oil prices strengthened. WTI crude rose 3.09% to $84.95/bbl, while Brent crude gained 2.91% to $91.1/bbl. US Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell to their lowest level since 1982. OPEC+ production in July stood at 32.7 million b/d, still 5.55 million b/d below February levels.

III. International Logistics and Supply Chain

【German Port 24-Hour Strike】

     German service workers' union Verdi called a 24-hour warning strike at six German seaports – Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Bremen, Wilhelmshaven, Emden, and Brake – starting on the evening of August 17. The strike involves approximately 11,000 port workers. At the EUROGATE Container Terminal Bremerhaven, the work stoppage runs from 06:00 on August 18 to 06:00 on August 19. No container movements in or out of the affected ports will take place during the strike.

     Yard utilisation at major European ports during the same period: Hamburg 80%-85%, Rotterdam 75%-90%, Antwerp up to 80%.

   💡 Logistics alert: The Bremerhaven strike, combined with high yard utilisation at three major European ports, is expected to cause 3-5 days of delays on European trade lanes this week. Exporters are advised to communicate schedule adjustments with European buyers in advance and evaluate alternative ports or routing options.

【SCFI Freight Index Holds at High Levels】

     On August 14, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,355.24 points, up 79.10 points or 2.41% week-on-week. Key trade lanes showed diverging trends:

【Container Freight Index Futures Hit Limit-Up】

     Container freight index futures hit the 10% upside limit on August 17, driven by repricing of shipping risks and OPEC+ production falling short of expectations.

【Asian Port Congestion Persists】

     Waiting times at major Asian ports: Shanghai 5-6 days, Qingdao 4-5 days, Ningbo 3-4 days, Manila 3-4 days. Several shipping lines have reintroduced emergency fuel surcharges ranging from $38-75/TEU.

【Pinglu Canal to Open in September】

     The Pinglu Canal, 134.2 km in length and navigable for 5,000-tonne vessels, will officially open to navigation in September. The canal will shorten the sea-route distance for southwestern China by 560 km, with total logistics costs expected to fall by 18%-30%. Exporters in southwestern China are advised to evaluate the feasibility of switching to the Beibu Gulf ports for their overseas shipments.

IV. Industry and Trade Data

     Yangtze River Delta foreign trade hits record high. In the first seven months of the year, the Yangtze River Delta region recorded total foreign trade of RMB 11.41 trillion, up 18.9% year-on-year. Trade with Belt and Road countries reached RMB 5.85 trillion, up 21.7%; trade with Latin America, Africa, and ASEAN grew 11.7%, 16.9%, and 31.1%, respectively.

     IC exports nearly double. Driven by the global AI investment boom, July IC export value surged 116.57% year-on-year. Cumulative IC exports in the first seven months of the year jumped 99.5% year-on-year. Automatic data processing equipment exports grew 67.4% year-on-year in July.

     Smart bionic robot exports surge. Industrial robot exports in the first seven months reached RMB 7.34 billion, up 13.2%, sold to 141 countries and regions.

     Innovative drug out-licensing accelerates. In the first half of the year, China's total innovative drug out-licensing transaction value reached $99.7 billion.

     Africa zero-tariff policy shows effect. Following China's full implementation of zero tariffs on all 53 African countries with diplomatic relations from May 1, 2026, imports from Africa in May-June grew 23.5% year-on-year.

     AI tool penetration exceeds 98%. An Amazon survey shows that over 98% of Chinese sellers have adopted AI tools, with 16% having deployed AI-powered workflows.

V. This Week's Trade Action Points

     1. The 86.01% anti-dumping duty on aluminum extrusions has taken effect. Companies in the aluminum extrusion, window, door, curtain wall, and furniture sectors should immediately verify whether their products fall within the scope and consult legal counsel on separate-rate eligibility or product exclusion options.

     2.The US-Canada August 19 tariff deadline is approaching. Companies exporting to the US via Canada should urgently evaluate alternative routes and supply-chain contingency plans.

     3. German port strike plus congestion at three major European ports. European trade lane shipments are expected to see 3-5 days of delays this week. Advance communication with buyers on delivery schedule adjustments and evaluation of alternative shipping options are strongly recommended.