The EU Climbs, the US Contracts – Where Is All the Money Flowing?

The EU is up 9.5%, the US is in negative territory, but ASEAN has sprinted to 20% – and the top buyer hasn't changed in six years.

     Three major markets are telling three completely different stories within the same foreign trade landscape. According to General Administration of Customs data for the first seven months of the year, trade with ASEAN reached RMB 5.14 trillion, up 20%; with the EU, RMB 3.67 trillion, up 9.5%; and with the US, RMB 2.38 trillion – still in the red, down 1.6%. Then on September 1, a State Council Information Office press conference dropped another bombshell: in US dollar terms, China-ASEAN trade hit $744.41 billion, with growth accelerating to 24.7%. ASEAN has now held the title of China's largest trading partner for six consecutive years – and the gap is visibly widening.

Core Data Snapshot

    •Jan–July trade with ASEAN: RMB 5.14 trillion | +20% YoY, accounting for 17.1% of total foreign trade

    •In USD terms: $744.41 billion | +24.7% YoY

    •Exports to ASEAN: RMB 3.26 trillion | +20.3%

    •Imports from ASEAN: RMB 1.88 trillion | +19.3%

    •Full-year 2025: $1.05 trillion | First time breaking the trillion-dollar mark

     Why is the USD-denominated growth rate higher than the RMB-denominated one? Because the RMB has appreciated against the dollar this year – the same volume of business looks more impressive when counted in greenbacks. But no matter which currency you use, the direction is the same: for every RMB 100 of China's foreign trade, RMB 17 is now done with ASEAN. And that's not all – this year also marks the fifth anniversary of the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Meanwhile, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) 3.0 Upgrade Protocol has been formally signed, bringing digital economy, green economy, standards, and supply chains into the institutional framework.

 The EU Climbs, the US Contracts – Where Is All the Money Flowing?

Line up the three markets side by side, and it's immediately clear who's contributing the growth.

     The logic behind the 20-plus percentage point gap isn't complicated: ASEAN is replicating China's earlier growth trajectory – industrialisation accelerating, infrastructure spreading out, and demand for intermediate goods, machinery, and new energy emerging one after another. And China's industrial chain is already interwoven with ASEAN's: Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia rank as the top three China-ASEAN trading partners. You sell them components; they assemble and sell to the world. The more this chain turns, the faster it spins – and neither side can stop it.

Provincial Firepower in Full Swing: One Jiangsu Did RMB 810.85 Billion

     Provincial-level data tells an even more vivid story. According to Nanjing Customs, in the first seven months of this year, Jiangsu Province's trade with ASEAN reached RMB 810.85 billion, up 36.4% – nearly double the national growth rate for China-ASEAN trade, accounting for about 15% of the national total. One Jiangsu-based artificial turf company specially adapted its ageing-resistant technology for Southeast Asia's high-temperature, high-humidity climate, boosting turf lifespan by over 40% – and this year, its exports to ASEAN more than doubled. This is a classic playbook: not low-price competition, but product adaptation to local pain points – and once you adapt, that's your moat.

     Institutional Dividends Are Also Paying Off Fast. From September 1, the General Administration of Customs' 2026 Announcement No. 109 officially took effect, with the China-ASEAN Customs Agreement being implemented – simplifying rules of origin verification and mutual customs clearance recognition under the RCEP framework. Take one example: a Suzhou company exporting dehumidifiers to Malaysia – with a single China-ASEAN certificate of origin, its client saves 4% in tariffs directly. Taicang Customs issued nearly 4,000 such certificates in the first seven months of this year, and the number is still rising. A certificate is money – but many people haven't gone to claim it yet.

     Practical Tip: Before exporting to ASEAN, check three things – whether your product is on the CAFTA tariff reduction list, whether you can get a certificate of origin, and whether the destination country has any new customs clearance rules. Use the Big Trade Data customs database to filter real ASEAN buyers and purchase volumes by destination country + HS code, then calculate your pricing headroom against the FTA tariff rates – don't give away tariff savings to middlemen.

Nanning Opens Its Doors in Two Weeks – CAEXPO Debuts a "Demand Exhibition" for the First Time

     There's one more event worth marking on every trade professional's calendar: the 23rd China-ASEAN Expo will be held in Nanning from September 17 to 21, under the theme "Share Opportunities of CAFTA 3.0, Jointly Create a Better Life" – a direct reference to the FTA upgrade. The 170,000-square-metre exhibition area will host over 2,200 Chinese companies and nearly 1,000 ASEAN companies. This year's expo has changed the rules: for the first time, a "Demand Exhibition of ASEAN Countries" will put ASEAN companies' procurement needs on display for Chinese companies to match; for the first time, an "AI Supermarket" will feature over 400 AI glasses, smartwatches, and home robots for on-site experience and direct ordering; and flagship enterprises will lead smaller companies into the market together.

     Looking at the investment side, none of this is a flash in the pan. As of July this year, cumulative two-way investment between China and ASEAN, as well as the total turnover of Chinese engineering contracts in ASEAN, have both surpassed $515 billion. The East Coast Rail Link in Malaysia has passed 94% completion; the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Indonesia has carried over 15 million passengers; and the China-Laos 500kV power grid interconnection project has officially gone live. Wherever infrastructure projects go, orders for equipment, building materials, and maintenance follow – and the supporting business along this chain is enough to last for years.

ASEAN Business Development: It's Not Too Late to Get In

💡 Prospecting Tips

    •Keep your eye on intermediate goods and machinery/electronics. As ASEAN industrialisation accelerates, demand for mechanical equipment, electronic components, and chemical materials will only grow – don't just focus on end consumer goods.

    •Put certificates of origin to work. For products on the FTA tariff reduction list, a single certificate can save your client 4% or more in tariffs – that's the cheapest bargaining chip you have.

    •Follow the big projects for supporting opportunities. The ECRL, the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway, and other flagship projects are still moving forward – the procurement windows for construction materials, power equipment, and rail transit supplies along the routes are still open.

    •Lock in buyers with customs data. The Big Trade Data customs database covers 200+ countries – filter real buyers in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia by destination country, HS code, and purchase volume. It's far more efficient than relying on trade shows.

     ASEAN's growth isn't a stroke of luck – it's built layer by layer through industrial chain integration and institutional dividends. For trade professionals, don't judge a market by gut feeling. Who's buying, how much, at what price – it's all in the customs data. The Big Trade Data customs platform puts import-export records from 200+ countries right in front of you, letting you filter by company, by product category, by purchase volume – and capture orders through information asymmetry. When the data is in place, your share of ASEAN's money is guaranteed.