Compare the same product, period and measurement basis. Market size helps identify where to investigate; it does not determine where your business should enter.
Make the comparison consistent
Choose a product scope and record the classification edition you are using. The Harmonized System identifies international subheadings at six digits; national extensions can add more detail. Make sure the categories you compare describe equivalent goods.
Use the same reporting period and trade direction for each candidate market. A complete calendar year and an incomplete current year should not sit in the same ranking without explanation. When you use year-to-date data, compare equivalent months and label the cut-off date.
Look at scale and direction together
Start with import value and, where comparable quantity data exist, volume. Investigate whether changes reflect more goods, a change in product mix, or differences in value per unit. A rising trade value alone does not demonstrate stronger physical demand.
Use more than one period where available. Look for unusually large transactions, rebounds from a low base and persistent activity. State the limitation when a short history makes it impossible to distinguish a trend from a temporary fluctuation.
Use a market comparison brief
| Dimension | What to investigate | Decision it supports |
|---|---|---|
| Demand | Comparable values, volumes and historical patterns | Whether to investigate further |
| Competition | Supplier-country mix and concentration | Where differentiation may matter |
| Customer access | Availability of relevant company-level records | How to develop a prospect list |
| Operational fit | Your delivery capacity, product requirements and service model | Whether the opportunity is realistic |
Understand why sources can disagree
An exporter’s reported value and a partner’s import value may differ. UN Comtrade identifies valuation, timing and coverage among the reasons. Imports and exports can also use different valuation bases. Treat partner-reported figures as a separate series rather than quietly combining them with direct reports.
Record the source, reporter, partner, product definition, units, currency and extraction date in your working file. If you cannot reconcile a difference, describe it and keep the alternatives visible. A transparent range of evidence is more useful than a falsely precise conclusion.
Turn the ranking into a decision
Shortlist a manageable set of markets for deeper research. For each one, write a reason to investigate, a material uncertainty and the next piece of evidence you need. One market may offer greater scale while another fits your distribution model or production capacity better.
Trade data should inform a broader market-entry assessment. Validate applicable product requirements, logistics, commercial terms and customer access using appropriate current sources. Avoid turning a high import ranking into a guaranteed-sales claim.
Sources and further reading
This is an original research workflow guide. Sources below support terminology and product examples; the guide is not a market forecast or a live company report.
Put the method to work.
Define your product, market and objective before requesting a relevant dataset.
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